Our approach to your challenges is based on scenarios. Each scenario begins with your own imagination and the collection of facts and assumptions.
Why we make scenarios
Predictions have too often proved to be wrong – the influences from all directions are too complex, too chaotic and too diverse. The behaviour of all those involved in a process and the results of a multitude of factors can rarely be reliably predicted – sometimes not even for minimal periods of time. But: Ignoring the future is not an option either. The approach of our company combines many years of experience with new, innovative ideas: This enables us to identify current uncertainties and assess their potential impact in order to plan possible responses and shape change. Because we can influence the future – with our decisions today. Of course, there can be no absolute claim to correctness. But we believe it is better to anticipate the right direction than to be completely wrong with a perfect result. Instead of planning through the best case, it is assumed that different target states can occur. The aim is to answer the question: What would ideally be done in which case to achieve the best possible result?
Scenario types
Scenarios are narratives of alternative environments that could arise from today’s decisions. Scenarios are not predictions or strategies. They function more like hypotheses, with which a “what if” is played through in a structured way. This makes new and unforeseen opportunities and challenges for organizations visible.
Scenarios are constructs of ideas based on plausible assumptions about the effects of internal and external developments on us.
Scenarios reveal the full range of future conditions, opportunities, threats and unavoidable obstacles that affect the achievement of objectives.
Scenarios create insight. From the vision of tomorrow, measures for today can be determined. Influences that often obstruct the view in the current situation appear in a different light when viewed from the goal – this is how solutions can be developed and barriers overcome.
Scenarios guide our strategic thinking about how we can achieve a goal and change our decisions.
The construction of scenarios is suitable for concrete decision preparation with a short target horizon as well as for long-term vision development. We distinguish between four types of scenarios, each of which we cover with appropriate methods:
Linear – situations with low uncertainty, a clear development path and dependent results
Even for clearly foreseeable projects and development paths, it can make sense to think backwards from the goal. Requirements for planning such as business cases and communication plans become clearer and their significance for the achievement of objectives becomes more apparent. Furthermore, this approach helps to better assess the effects of developments and external influences and to prepare for them accordingly.
Analysis tools:
- Market research
- Benchmarking
- Industry structure analysis (Porter)
- Business case based on DCF/NPV
Results:
- Business Case/Planning
- Forecast
Trees – situations with a limited number of target states
The most common use for scenarios is in situations that branch out to decision points. Known from game theory – the “scenarios” correspond to the defined results.
outcomes:
- complete descriptions of each target situation
- Paths to each target situation, with decision points, triggers and signals
- Validated probabilities of each target situation
- Risk analysis/evaluation of each target situation
Areas – situations with uncertain outcome in a specific event space
For use cases in which the paths to the target situation cannot be clearly determined – usually due to longer periods of time or greater external dependencies.
Analysis tools:
- Trend radar and analysis of influencing factors
- Description of the system dynamics under certain influencing factors
- Scenario planning for short-term periods within the target areas
Results:
- Possible, but not exhaustive set of target situations
- Relationship to external factors in the respective target areas identified
- Dynamics that lead to the target situations
- sound analysis of possible strategies
Free – situations with a completely undefined direction of development
Situations of complete uncertainty or very high dependency on external factors require a different approach, which is more characterised by understanding and analysis.
Analysis tools:
- Analogies – historical and systemic
- Vision design and “what if” scenarios
Results:
- Understanding of the influencing factors, e.g. of stakeholders
- Toolset of analogies and historical data
- Understanding of possibilities and preferred target situations